Australia's low unemployment rate delays rate cuts, which affect decisions on refinancing and mortgage repayments.
Australia's conservative interest rate strategy stands out globally, reflecting RBA's unique approach.
The Australian labour market is robust since historically low unemployment shapes the direction of monetary policy for the Reserve Bank of Australia. The RBA prediction of 4.3% runs counter to the most recent unemployment statistics, which plummeted to 3.9% in November 2024, therefore distorting the expected rate-reducing strategy.
Greater labour markets support job seekers and build broad economic trust. This can be a relief for people who are waiting for the much-needed break for borrowers and homeowners.
Dynamic Labour Market Complicates RBA Monetary Policy Families are benefiting now with more income and larger savings, even if they no longer experience the burden of limiting employment availability. A steady decline in unemployment highlights Australia's solid overall economic basis.
Meanwhile, Analysts cautioned, that this may last longer than expected. Madeline Dunk of ANZ said:
Households have adapted well, with savings and higher wages supporting them through the high-rate environment. This reduces the immediate need for the RBA to cut rates."
The Impact on Mortgage Holders
Variable-Rate Borrowers Continue to Pay High Costs
Borrowers with variable rates may have already seen their card bills go up and downhill.
Unfortunately, with market rates at a standstill, variable-rate mortgage borrowers continue to face dramatically increased monthly repayments. For example, a $600,000 loan with a 5.5% interest rate is $3,406 each month. Unless mortgage rates fall, everyone may expect this significantly greater expense to put a strain on their household budgets and reduce discretionary spending.
Fixed-Rate Borrowers Brace for the End of Low Rates
Some fixed-rate borrowers are not looking forward to the final years of low rates.
On May 1, 2025, however, with the end of their current arrangements, those borrowers who moved to fixed-rate mortgages would have their mortgages converted to the best, or prevailing, market rates. And when FCAC cites a "fixed-price cliff," one cannot mistake it for a sudden increase in mortgage pressure caused by shifting workers to generic shifts.
When do you expect the rate cuts to arrive?
Australian Banks Disagree on Economic Predictions
Australia’s largest two banks are on the opposite ends regarding the RBA’s next steps. While ANZ and Commonwealth Bank expect rate cuts in February 2025, Westpac and NAB predict it to be in May 2025.
Considering inflation trends and wage pressures listed in a more vital environment for cuts in a strong economic setting, some experts are somewhat more cautious about the possibilities of rate reduction in early 2025. Indeed, should the inflationary pressures resurface, the RBA may possibly be slower in rate lowering.
Splits in Predictions
Short to medium-term preparation entails adjusting to a high-rate environment. Efforts include:
Budgeting: Cut down on discretionary spending to ensure all mortgage repayments are possible.
Refinancing: Attempt to capture offers better than anticipated as market conditions change.
Expert help: Advisors are more than capable of tailoring strategies to individual situations.
OM Financials knows the high-rate market and what challenges to overcome with it. We help borrowers make proper calculations on repayment, refinance and future rate fluctuations. Contact at OM Financials.
