The NAB has changed its demand for the first interest rate reduction from May 2025 into May 2025, therefore reversing a previous estimate of a drop passed in February 2025.
This move corresponds with NAB's September statement, which sooner than predicted a rate reduction brought forth by a more hopeful inflation projection. But today the Reserve Bank of Australia must evaluate until its next policy decision in February 2025 limited new data on which to base decisions and a stronger-than-expected job market.
NAB Economics thinks the RBA wouldn't be rushing to policy changes provided inflation and unemployment stayed constant with just two employment reports and one quarterly CPI release coming in before the February meeting.
Starting with a quarter-point decrease in May 2025 and drifting down to 3.10 percent by mid-2026, the main banks now project a measured rate-cutting path.
NAB Leading the Way
But the change made NAB the first big bank to indicate a rate drop; its rivals are left wondering whether they will follow through. Still, Westpac says that its expected February 2025 cut depends on softened CPI data and increased jobless rates.
The base variable home loan rate NAB had cut 40 basis points to reach 6.4% annual rate. In attempts to offset its intense competition as well as its digital-only products offered by CommBank and ANZ Plus, the bank dropped its first rate in a year. To keep reasonable terms for even the lowest deposit homebuyers, loans with LVRs of up to 95% now get to borrow at the new rate.
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